It certainly appears that El Nino (the warming of the equatorial Pacific Waters) has already peaked in intensity (probably in December), and is now starting to show a steady decline. Whether that steady decline continues is up for debate, but as of right now, we are probably dealing with a weak to slightly moderate El Nino. It is now anticipated that conditions may get back close to neutral by spring. What does this mean for Canada? Well, I think we may already be seeing the effects of a weakening of El Nino with the current pattern change which is trending toward a building West Coast ridge of high pressure which will certainly help dry out British Columbia. That same ridge is also allowing the very cold air from the far north to spill down through the Prairies, while blocking the moist, Pacific air from invading the country . The southern branch of the jet stream is getting supressed well to the south as the northern, polar jet becomes dominant. Eventually, that cold air will be taking up residence across a large portion of eastern Canada starting next week and probably continuing through at least the end of the month, if not longer. The coldest departures from normal will likely be across Ontario and Quebec the second half of this month, then less so as you progress to the east through the Maritimes and Newfoundland. Check out the latest sea surface temperature anomaly animation over the equatorial Pacific which is starting to show signs of a weakening el nino. Notice how the reds and oranges (well above normal water temps) shrink or disappear on the last image from January 3rd, which is indicating a trend of cooler waters being upwelled toward the surface in that region.